Currently, South American producers are being thrown out of the EU market at tariffs, but if there is no Brexit deal, the UK will open a duty-free quota of 230,000 tons for all countries licensed to export to the UK.

Under this quota, the “first come, first served” direct competition to Irish beef producers, whose deliveries make up the majority of British imports of this product, may come from Brazil and Argentina.

Tom Forshaw, an AHDB (Agriculture and Horticulture Development Council) red meat analyst, said: “In South America, production costs are significantly lower than in the UK and Ireland ... Thus, their beef can be an attractive option for importers, especially those deliver products to the catering sector, where origin does not always have such a high priority as in the retail sector. ”In addition, the cost of shipping goods across the Atlantic is estimated at approx about 20 euro cents per kg, which helps maintain a competitive price.

In a scenario where South American companies can establish relationships with British suppliers to take advantage of duty free access, this can affect both the Irish export price and the UK domestic price.

Mr. Forshaw also suggested that Brazil might have the opportunity to cut prices even further in the absence of a deal. "If you look at the price of frozen boneless cuts delivered in 2018, then the Brazilian price delivered to the UK was similar to the Irish price." - said the analyst.